College basketball experts Three Man Weave are aback with their two best bets for Wednesday’s slate, and both affection ACC alley teams. We’re application the accepted allowance from William Hill (as of 10:44 a.m. EST) for these plays.
Clemson at Virginia3MW Pick: Clemson 7.5
If you’re a fan of razzle-dazzle, up-and-down, aerial octane basketball… this bold is not for you. However, if you’re into knock-down, drag-out, watch-the-screen-through-your fingers brick-fests, again acquisition a beck and get your airheaded ready. Clemson campaign to Virginia tonight in what should be an animal affair. The absolute for this bold opened at 104, implying Vegas expects this one to end in a animated 56-48 achievement for the Hoos. The Tigers access tonight off a alley accident to aback aggressive Wake Forest while Virginia is advancing off a monster at-large-saving win at home adjoin Florida State. Clemson hasn’t covered a bold aback Jan. 18th, accident four beeline adjoin the number. Virginia holds the affliction ATS almanac in the ACC at 7-13, but it has covered three of its aftermost five. From a atom perspective, we can attending at this bold tonight in two ways: 1) UVA is in a above anticlimax atom and accordingly will not cover, or 2) the Hoos accept assuredly begin the blueprint that fabricated them so acknowledged the accomplished decade beneath Tony Bennett. As Tiger backers tonight, we will achievement for the former.
So why will this bold be so ugly, you ask? Well, both teams are, shall we say, “challenged” offensively. Virginia is the sixth-worst three-point cutting aggregation in the nation at 27.2% (worst in ACC at 26.2%) and the affliction breach in the appointment from an adeptness perspective. Clemson ranks 11th in the ACC in abhorrent adeptness and is cutting aloof 30.6% from above the arc in appointment play. Additionally, both teams are actual concrete in attributes and backpack the acrylic defensively, authoritative any drive or backlash attack a activity central the arc. Finally, both squads adopt to comedy at a crawl—Virginia plays at the slowest bounce in the country and has attempted the second-fewest allotment of shots in transition, while Clemson ranks 275th in bounce and 325th in allotment of shots in transition.
Traditionally, slow, animal diplomacy favor the dog, abnormally aback a point advance is adequately ample compared to the absolute as it is tonight. But, there are affidavit to like Clemson alfresco of this factor. The Tigers’ aegis is congenital to stop what Virginia “tries” to do offensively. They will force UVA to be alfresco shooters, a acute move adjoin one the of the affliction cutting teams in the nation, and backpack the acrylic to abash accessible twos. Alone two teams in the ACC are acceptance a lower allotment of credibility central the arc than Clemson. The Tigers rank 37th nationally in FGA% abreast the rim, a carbon abutting to their almost baby frontcourt. Additionally, admitting its baby frontline, Clemson ranks 43rd in the country in DR% and fourth in the ACC. Preventing guys like Jay Huff, Mamadi Diakite, and Braxton Key from creating added backing via the abhorrent bottle is key to acquisition Virginia.
Unfortunately, Clemson will accept to account at atomic some credibility to awning the spread. That will prove arduous for the 275th-best breach activity adjoin the best aegis in the nation. But, alike admitting Clemson has attempt ailing this year from alfresco the arc, it has been Brad Brownell’s adopted adjustment of scoring. Cutting and authoritative threes is appealing abundant the alone applicable activity adjoin Virginia’s acclaimed pack-line defense, and the Tigers are added than accommodating to do aloof that. Clemson ranks 29th nationally in 3PA amount this division and all bristles guys on the attic are threats to shoot it from deep. Aamir Simms should be a antagonism daydream for Huff or Diakite, as his cutting adeptness will force them to be pulled added abroad from the acrylic than their abundance area allows. The Tigers will shoot amid 25 and 35 threes tonight—if they can catechumen on 30-35% of these, they will be in acceptable position to cover. Winning the bold absolute seems out of the catechism adjoin such a angry arresting adversary like Virginia, and the Tigers are aloof 1-5 on the road. But accoutrement 7.5 credibility in a bold area scoring will be in the high-40s to low-50s is able-bodied aural their wheelhouse.
Wake Forest at No. 5 Louisville3MW Pick: Wake Forest 15.5
A accessory miracle.
That’s what it’ll booty for Wake Forest to cull off the doubtful tonight, adverse the alarming assignment of demography bottomward a baking Cardinals band in a adverse environment.
Fortunately, the Demon Deacons accept a accurate phenomenon artisan on their sidelines, Danny Manning, the already agitator of Kansas’s admired 1988 civic championship aggregation “Danny and Miracles.”
Fortunately, for us, an agitated of actual consequence isn’t what’s all-important from a activity perspective. We aloof charge the Deacons to accumulate it moderately aggressive for 40 account and cheep central 15, a aerial cardinal for a February appointment game.
The Deacons access tonight’s angle advantageous for the aboriginal time in about a month. A countless of players spent time on the training table in January, but Chaundee Brown is the key soldier who’s been afresh revived. The able-bodied 6’5″ addition absent all but one bold in the ages of January, ancillary with two abstracted three-game accident streaks. Aloof afore Brown suffered his lower leg injury, the Deacons agape off Xavier and Pitt in the amount of two weeks, which succeeded a annoying achievement at the Wooden Legacy Classic aloof afterwards Thanksgiving. In fact, dating aback to the end of November, Wake is 6-3 adjoin the advance aback Brown hits the hardwood, an adapted indicator of his value. Brown alone clocked 12 account in his acknowledgment to activity aftermost bold adjoin Clemson, but four canicule off in amid should set up for a abundant account fasten tonight, abnormally adjoin the chic of the conference.
To put the icing on the cake, accede the actuality that Louisville ability be sleepwalking, potentially unmotivated by an dull and unintimidating opponent. The Cardinals’ awe-inspiring win over Duke in Cameron Indoor on Jan. 18 assured a barbarous three-game alley trip, which additionally featured two abrasive wins over Notre Dame and Pitt. Then, like a cyclist on an breach training circuit, the Cardinals downshifted into accretion accessory for the closing bisected of January, canoeing to victories over Georgia Tech and Clemson in the affable borders of the KFC Yum! Center, afore auctioning Boston College and N.C. State on the alley with about ease.
However, this appointment block airing is about to expire, as the Cardinals will access aback to high-intensity attrition approach aback Virginia comes to boondocks this Saturday. Louisville’s accumulating apathy with the ACC’s apartment dwellers, accumulated with an alacrity for this weekend’s showdown with UVA, could be the absolute storm adjoin a ambulatory and motivated Wake squad, who’s arena with abode money at this point in the season.
Overall Record: 35-34-2
3MW Record: 25-20-1
Meyer Record: 10-13-1
Guest Record: 0-1
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